Tour ten stages in, Cavendish makes it three

Cavendish won yet another bunch sprint to take his third stage of the Tour. What an amazing sprinter.

The last three stages have made little difference in the GC. I have to consider everyone but Contador and Armstrong a long shot though. I had A. Schleck up there with them, but on further consideration, he’s behind already and he’s weak in time trials, so he actually needs to put about 4 to 5 minutes into both Contador and Armstrong in the Alps to make up for the current deficit plus the time he’ll likely lose in the final time trial.

Other updates: Pereiro dropped out of the Tour. Added Nibali to dark horses. Again, Leipheimer and Kloden are longer shots than their performances suggest because they look to be riding on behalf of Contador and Armstrong rather than trying to beat them.

Top contenders:
Contador, Armstrong

Long shots:
A. Schleck, F. Schleck, Vande Velde, Sastre, Evans

Really long shots:
Kloden, Leipheimer, Kirchen

Forget about it:
Menchov

Dark horses:
Martin, Wiggins, Nibali (consider them really long shots, but they've been impressive so far)