Contador owns the mountain in stage 15

Alberto Contador put himself in the yellow jersey and gained 43 seconds or more on all of his rivals in stage 15 today. It was Andy Schleck coming in second place at 43 down and everyone else 1:03 or more back. Armstrong admitted that he simply wasn't strong enough to keep up on the final climb. He lost 1:35 and sits in 2nd place at 1:37 down. I'm still holding out hope that he can pull off something amazing in this Tuesday's stage, but from the beginning the prospects of a guy who's almost 38 years old winning the Tour would be miraculous, even the best Tour de France rider in history. Don't count him out though.

Nibali and Wiggins continue to surprise and are still in it. Nibali's best prior finish in a Grand Tour was 11th place in last year's Giro. Wiggins has never had a strong Grand Tour finish. He was 71st in this year's Giro. Yet suddenly he's climbing very well and now in 3rd place at the Tour de France at 1:46 down. He's also expected to be very strong in the time trial whereas Andy Schleck probably needs to have the yellow jersey and about two minutes on Contador and Armstrong going into the time trial. Vande Velde lost a lot of time and trails by 3:59. 2009 Giro winner Menchov now trails by over ten minutes.

Contador is definitely in command now though. That's the big story.

Yellow:
Contador

Contenders:
Armstrong, A. Schleck, Wiggins

Long shots:
F. Schleck, Sastre, Kloden

Really long shots:
Evans, Nibali, Martin, Vande Velde

Forget about it:
Kirchen, Menchov