3 stages left in Le Tour
Armstrong is still up by 2:46 in the Tour de France after 18 stages. I'm kind of disappointed that in this race, his last, he hasn't dominated the stage wins like he did last year when he won five solo stages plus the team time trial. This year his only stage win is the team trial. On the other hand he's consistently the strongest rider, day in and day out, among the top contenders, and that's why he's in the yellow jersey.
Today's stage again saw a breakaway of non-contenders that the peleton allowed to stay away. The top ten just don't seem to care too much about the stage wins. They want to put time into each other and improve their final ranking. Ivan Basso once again attacked Lance on the final climb today, dropping some of the best riders, but again failing to gain any time at all on Lance. Time is running out for Basso, a great rider in his own right, and that 2:46 gap hasn't budged. He'll go very hard in the time trial and Lance will do the same, giving one of them a shot at the stage win. Based on past time trial performances, the edge has to go to Lance.
When asked recently, Armstrong picked Jan Ullrich as the favorite to win next year's Tour de France. Ullrich remains a superb rider who's still winning races, but based on their performances the last two years, I've got to go with Ivan Basso. He's looked very strong in the mountains both years, with only Lance able to best him there and only barely. He's proved himself capable of attacking and dropping everyone else. He's also improved his time trial abilities, where Ullrich probably still holds a slight edge. I just checked and was reminded that Ullrich finished 2nd in his very first Tour de France and won his second. That's absolutely phenomenal. Even the very best riders usually need a few years of experience at the Tour before they can even hope to compete for the overall win. Yet over his career, that incredible early promise hasn't quite panned out for Ullrich, and Basso looks stronger now. Basso is also just 27 years old, giving him about six or even seven more Tours where he may compete for the overall title. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins more than once. With a strong team and some good breaks, he could dominate.
Today's stage again saw a breakaway of non-contenders that the peleton allowed to stay away. The top ten just don't seem to care too much about the stage wins. They want to put time into each other and improve their final ranking. Ivan Basso once again attacked Lance on the final climb today, dropping some of the best riders, but again failing to gain any time at all on Lance. Time is running out for Basso, a great rider in his own right, and that 2:46 gap hasn't budged. He'll go very hard in the time trial and Lance will do the same, giving one of them a shot at the stage win. Based on past time trial performances, the edge has to go to Lance.
When asked recently, Armstrong picked Jan Ullrich as the favorite to win next year's Tour de France. Ullrich remains a superb rider who's still winning races, but based on their performances the last two years, I've got to go with Ivan Basso. He's looked very strong in the mountains both years, with only Lance able to best him there and only barely. He's proved himself capable of attacking and dropping everyone else. He's also improved his time trial abilities, where Ullrich probably still holds a slight edge. I just checked and was reminded that Ullrich finished 2nd in his very first Tour de France and won his second. That's absolutely phenomenal. Even the very best riders usually need a few years of experience at the Tour before they can even hope to compete for the overall win. Yet over his career, that incredible early promise hasn't quite panned out for Ullrich, and Basso looks stronger now. Basso is also just 27 years old, giving him about six or even seven more Tours where he may compete for the overall title. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins more than once. With a strong team and some good breaks, he could dominate.
posted by Patrick at
11:11 AM
1 Comments:
I think the biggest problem Ullrich has is that T-Mobile has too many riders who think THEY should be The Man (especially Kloden and Vino), where Discovery is utterly devoted to putting Lance atop the podium in Paris.
I think T-Mobile needs to clean house behind Ullrich next year and bring in some guys who know what domestique means. I think Ullrich has one or two more good Tours left in him before Basso takes over.
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