Monday, January 07, 2008

Presidential primaries are looking up

Well the primaries are looking interesting now and in my opinion encouraging. I've been saying for many months that my biggest concern with long time Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton is that she's too polarizing. After eight years of George W., this election is the Democrats' to lose, but if they nominate Hillary, they just might manage to blow it again. Rational or not, too many people hate her.

Then we had the surprise in Iowa last week. Polls had shown Clinton ahead for much of the campaign, then in a dead heat in the final days before the caucus. Yet Obama won by eight points. Now the latest polls in New Hampshire are showing a big surge in Obama's favor. He's very likely to win New Hampshire tomorrow.

On the Republican side, I'd written off John McCain a few months ago. His polling numbers just weren't there. Yet now he's in a dead heat with Romney in the New Hampshire polls and has gained considerable ground across the country as Giuliani has faded. The latest Gallup poll shows an almost significant four point NH lead for McCain while showing an impressive 13 point NH lead for Obama over Clinton.

Yes, Huckabee is a strong contender with his victory in Iowa and his domination of the evangelical Christian vote. The latter may now be a weakness though. His appeal is too narrow, possibly even for the primaries and much more definitely for the general election. Too many people are sick of the religious right and their continued efforts to push this nation toward theocracy.

I liked McCain when he was a moderate. I lost respect for him in the last couple of years when he started kissing up to the far right. Still, both he and Obama draw a lot of independent, moderate votes. It's good to see them gaining ground. Maybe people are finally sick of the divisive politics embodied by Karl Rove and the Bush administration. "Uniter", my ass...

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