Polls are worthless

So the polls showed Obama 8-12% ahead of Clinton going into today's NH primary. Yet Clinton just won. So much for that +/- 4% margin of error many of them claim, huh?

The two keys to victory? First, old people voted like crazy. 67% of Democrats were over 40 according to CNN. Will this be another election where young people get excited about a candidate, but don't turn out to the polls in sufficient numbers? That's happened many times before. That's why when I hear that Obama has a very strong following among young people, I'm skeptical about how significant that will be. The fact is in every election, no matter how many "get out the vote" campaigns that youth media outlets like MTV run, older people vote in far greater percentages. It doesn't matter how excited people are about a candidate. If they don't freaking go to the polls, it counts for nothing.

The other was female voters. From CNN... "According to the exit polls, Clinton had a sizable lead over Obama among women, 47 percent to 34 percent." In Iowa she actually lost to Obama among women voters.

So that's what this is about for some NH women voters? Come on... voting for someone based on their gender is about the stupidest reason I can think of to cast a vote. But yes, I saw some interviews too where people said things like, "well I'm voting for Hillary because I think it's about time we had a woman President". Sigh. Was it the crying thing? Every guy I talked to thought her tearful response to a question at a rally yesterday was kind of pathetic and would hurt her at the ballot box. But apparently the tactic worked on at least some people.