Stupid voting criteria

As the Presidential primaries heat up, it's really highlighted for me some of the really asinine reasons that people vote for their chosen candidate. Here's a few:

1) Race - Barack Obama got 80% of the black vote and only 25% of the white vote in South Carolina yesterday. What that tells me is that a lot of people on both sides are voting their race. That's just depressing. Is the racial divide really so deep in South Carolina? It's hard to think of a dumber reason to vote for or against someone.

2) Gender - In the New Hampshire primary and in many national polls, women in the Democratic party are skewing heavily for Hillary Clinton. That tells us that women are voting for her because she's a woman and also some men may be voting against her for that reason. Sigh. Forget actual qualifications! Is the candidate male or female? That's what counts! Stupid, stupid, stupid...

3) Home state - Candidates usually win their home states and as we saw in Michigan, Romney won in part because he grew up in Michigan. Which makes me wonder, why do people vote for President like they cheer for a sports team? It's not a freaking basketball game! You're not supposed to mindlessly support Home over Visitor!

4) Height and looks in general - In the television age (JFK and later), most Presidents have been of above average height and are not heavy set. Taft, who's weight pushed 300 pounds, wouldn't have had a chance of getting elected if he had run in a time of televisions. What does height, weight, or attractiveness in general have to do with making good decisions as President? Jack. shit.

5) I'd like to have a beer with him! - This ridiculous voting justification came to light during Bush Jr.'s campaigns. Some people supported him because he seemed like the kind of guy they'd want to join for a beer down at the neighborhood bar. Seriously? Yes. Why would your main criteria for a President be that he seems like a "regular guy"? You're electing the leader of the free world, not picking who would be the most fun on a night out with the guys. The mind boggles...

Polls are worthless

So the polls showed Obama 8-12% ahead of Clinton going into today's NH primary. Yet Clinton just won. So much for that +/- 4% margin of error many of them claim, huh?

The two keys to victory? First, old people voted like crazy. 67% of Democrats were over 40 according to CNN. Will this be another election where young people get excited about a candidate, but don't turn out to the polls in sufficient numbers? That's happened many times before. That's why when I hear that Obama has a very strong following among young people, I'm skeptical about how significant that will be. The fact is in every election, no matter how many "get out the vote" campaigns that youth media outlets like MTV run, older people vote in far greater percentages. It doesn't matter how excited people are about a candidate. If they don't freaking go to the polls, it counts for nothing.

The other was female voters. From CNN... "According to the exit polls, Clinton had a sizable lead over Obama among women, 47 percent to 34 percent." In Iowa she actually lost to Obama among women voters.

So that's what this is about for some NH women voters? Come on... voting for someone based on their gender is about the stupidest reason I can think of to cast a vote. But yes, I saw some interviews too where people said things like, "well I'm voting for Hillary because I think it's about time we had a woman President". Sigh. Was it the crying thing? Every guy I talked to thought her tearful response to a question at a rally yesterday was kind of pathetic and would hurt her at the ballot box. But apparently the tactic worked on at least some people.

Presidential primaries are looking up

Well the primaries are looking interesting now and in my opinion encouraging. I've been saying for many months that my biggest concern with long time Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton is that she's too polarizing. After eight years of George W., this election is the Democrats' to lose, but if they nominate Hillary, they just might manage to blow it again. Rational or not, too many people hate her.

Then we had the surprise in Iowa last week. Polls had shown Clinton ahead for much of the campaign, then in a dead heat in the final days before the caucus. Yet Obama won by eight points. Now the latest polls in New Hampshire are showing a big surge in Obama's favor. He's very likely to win New Hampshire tomorrow.

On the Republican side, I'd written off John McCain a few months ago. His polling numbers just weren't there. Yet now he's in a dead heat with Romney in the New Hampshire polls and has gained considerable ground across the country as Giuliani has faded. The latest Gallup poll shows an almost significant four point NH lead for McCain while showing an impressive 13 point NH lead for Obama over Clinton.

Yes, Huckabee is a strong contender with his victory in Iowa and his domination of the evangelical Christian vote. The latter may now be a weakness though. His appeal is too narrow, possibly even for the primaries and much more definitely for the general election. Too many people are sick of the religious right and their continued efforts to push this nation toward theocracy.

I liked McCain when he was a moderate. I lost respect for him in the last couple of years when he started kissing up to the far right. Still, both he and Obama draw a lot of independent, moderate votes. It's good to see them gaining ground. Maybe people are finally sick of the divisive politics embodied by Karl Rove and the Bush administration. "Uniter", my ass...