Congratulations on the Tour de France

Congratulations to the winner of the 2009 Tour de France, Alberto Contador. He was simply untouchable in this race. The Tour is grueling and the rider who has the best combination of strength and solid tactics always wins. That rider was Alberto Contador. Remarkably, he's now won the last four Grand Tours that he's entered.

Also congratulations to Lance Armstrong. He's almost 38 years old. Moreover he retired after his 2005 victory. To come back to cycling at his age and after such a long layoff and take a podium spot in the Tour de France is truly an amazing feat.

Finally, 24 year old Andy Schleck deserves credit for a fantastic ride that made him the runner-up. The Schleck brothers are a great cycling story and we can look forward to them going head to head with Contador for years to come.

Astana's top three

As much as I hate to do it, I should move Armstrong to a long shot for the yellow. Not only does he have to make up 1:37 on Contador, he's also stated that he will support his teammate 100%. So unless Contador has an absolutely horrendous day in the mountains, so bad that Armstrong and Kloden go on without him, or he's really awful in the final time trial, Armstrong will not overtake him.

The possibility of an Astana sweep of the podium is still there. I don't know if they'll try it, but it would be spectacular to see Contador, Armstrong, and Kloden attack together up a mountain, setting a high enough pace that perhaps a few top riders could follow but none could accelerate past them.

Contador owns the mountain in stage 15

Alberto Contador put himself in the yellow jersey and gained 43 seconds or more on all of his rivals in stage 15 today. It was Andy Schleck coming in second place at 43 down and everyone else 1:03 or more back. Armstrong admitted that he simply wasn't strong enough to keep up on the final climb. He lost 1:35 and sits in 2nd place at 1:37 down. I'm still holding out hope that he can pull off something amazing in this Tuesday's stage, but from the beginning the prospects of a guy who's almost 38 years old winning the Tour would be miraculous, even the best Tour de France rider in history. Don't count him out though.

Nibali and Wiggins continue to surprise and are still in it. Nibali's best prior finish in a Grand Tour was 11th place in last year's Giro. Wiggins has never had a strong Grand Tour finish. He was 71st in this year's Giro. Yet suddenly he's climbing very well and now in 3rd place at the Tour de France at 1:46 down. He's also expected to be very strong in the time trial whereas Andy Schleck probably needs to have the yellow jersey and about two minutes on Contador and Armstrong going into the time trial. Vande Velde lost a lot of time and trails by 3:59. 2009 Giro winner Menchov now trails by over ten minutes.

Contador is definitely in command now though. That's the big story.

Yellow:
Contador

Contenders:
Armstrong, A. Schleck, Wiggins

Long shots:
F. Schleck, Sastre, Kloden

Really long shots:
Evans, Nibali, Martin, Vande Velde

Forget about it:
Kirchen, Menchov

Leipheimer out of the Tour

Levi Leipheimer broke his wrist in a crash near the end of yesterday’s stage and has had to withdraw from the Tour. Obviously it’s got to be hugely disappointing for him. He was in fourth place in the GC and one of Astana’s incredible four riders who have a shot at winning the Tour.

Cavendish won back to back stages again and made it four stage wins for this year’s Tour. He’s really cemented his position as the world best’s sprinter.

Other than Leipheimer’s injury, this week’s Tour stages have made little difference in the GC. Saturday and Sunday may be a different story.

Top contenders:
Contador, Armstrong

Long shots:
A. Schleck, F. Schleck, Sastre, Evans, Vande Velde

Really long shots:
Kloden, Kirchen

Forget about it:
Menchov

Dark horses:
Martin, Wiggins, Nibali (I consider them really long shots, but they've been impressive so far)

Tour ten stages in, Cavendish makes it three

Cavendish won yet another bunch sprint to take his third stage of the Tour. What an amazing sprinter.

The last three stages have made little difference in the GC. I have to consider everyone but Contador and Armstrong a long shot though. I had A. Schleck up there with them, but on further consideration, he’s behind already and he’s weak in time trials, so he actually needs to put about 4 to 5 minutes into both Contador and Armstrong in the Alps to make up for the current deficit plus the time he’ll likely lose in the final time trial.

Other updates: Pereiro dropped out of the Tour. Added Nibali to dark horses. Again, Leipheimer and Kloden are longer shots than their performances suggest because they look to be riding on behalf of Contador and Armstrong rather than trying to beat them.

Top contenders:
Contador, Armstrong

Long shots:
A. Schleck, F. Schleck, Vande Velde, Sastre, Evans

Really long shots:
Kloden, Leipheimer, Kirchen

Forget about it:
Menchov

Dark horses:
Martin, Wiggins, Nibali (consider them really long shots, but they've been impressive so far)

Tour hits the mountains

Stage 7 of the Tour de France was today and the Astana team continued their dominance, finishing the stage with four of the top six riders overall. They have so much talent that an Astana sweep of the podium in Paris is not out of the question.

Armstrong and Contador are now just two seconds apart in 2nd and 3rd place. First place has six seconds on Contador, but is not a General Classification (GC) contender, so we can expect him to drop in the coming stages.

Armstrong did exactly what he said he would do before stage 7: “I know Alberto wants to assert himself in the race. I don’t need a team meeting to tell me that. I know he’s ready to go. If he does – and no one can go with him – I will just hang back and stay with the other leaders.”

Contador attacked near the end of the stage. Evans looked like he might follow and Armstrong got on his wheel. When it quickly became clear that Evans wouldn’t be able to keep up with Contador, Armstrong stuck with Evans and other top GC contenders. Wiggins even thought it looked like Armstrong might have had the legs to follow, but chose to block for his teammate instead. Interesting. I can't imagine Armstrong has given up his own hopes for a Tour win just yet, but he might be planning to make a go of it late in the race if he's still close to the yellow jersey.

Here's how I see the chances of the top contenders coming into the Tour after the first mountain stage:

I rank Leipheimer and Kloden lower than perhaps their times would suggest. That’s because they would have to beat their teammates Contador and Armstrong to win and not only would that be very difficult, but so far it looks more likely that they will work for the top two instead. As for all but Armstrong, Contador, and Andy Schleck being long shots or worse, I'm just saying it's going to be very difficult to put time into Contador and Armstrong and that's what all the other contenders have to do now. Andy Schleck is a great climber and is rapidly maturing as a rider. Two years ago at the age of 22 he was runner up at the Giro. I give him the best shot of getting a break on the Astana pair.

Top contenders:
Contador, Armstrong, A. Schleck

Long shots:
Vande Velde, Leipheimer, F. Schleck, Sastre, Evans

Really long shots:
Kloden, Kirchen

Forget about it:
Menchov, Pereiro

Dark horses:
Martin, Wiggins (consider them really long shots, but they've been impressive so far)

Today's facepalm

Keith Olbermann just mocked, justifiably, a state congresswoman who when talking about uranium mining in her state that "the earth has been here for 6,000 years". Olbermann went on to point out that one of the reasons we know the earth is billions of years old is because of dating using uranium decay rates. So far so good, Keith. But then he added that this was "carbon dating", blah blah blah...

*facepalm*

Really, Keith? We use uranium to do carbon dating? Guess again. To do carbon dating, we use... wait for it........ carbon! sigh.

Stage 3 of the Tour de France – Armstrong steals time!

First, here's a link to the stage results from Velonews.com.

It’s amazing to me that in a flat stage the peloton let a general classification contender get away in the break and gain time. Other than the time trials, the mountain stages are all that were expected to matter for the GC. That makes today a really big day for Armstrong. If it took more energy than he’d expect to spend on a flat stage, that should be alright. As long as he holds up well in tomorrow’s team time trail, more flat stages to come will give him time to recover in the peloton without much chance of losing time so he’ll be ready when the Tour reaches the mountains.

It remains to be seen if Armstrong can truly contend for the top spot in the mountains at almost 38 years old. He didn't quite have the juice in Italy, but the goal of his training has once again been to peak in France. Nevertheless, an incredible four riders on team Astana are considered capable of winning the Tour (Contador, Armstrong, Kloden, and Leipheimer) and it's surprising the peloton would let him get away in the flats.

Cancellara and Tony Martin are not considered GC threats. That effectively gives Armstrong the early lead among GC threats now.

I can't decide if the press is making too much of a possible Astana inter-team rivalry or not. The way the Astana team is so incredibly stacked with top riders came as a big surprise to me given Armstrong’s stated goal of winning the Tour de France. Yet then he joined a team that has four Tour contenders including the man, Contador, many think is the favorite to win. Armstrong won all of his previous tours as the clear team leader on teams that were built around him. This year’s Astana is rather a bizarre way to build the team.

If Armstrong can't hang at the top in the mountains and Tour favorite Contador can, it won't matter. They'll talk about how they're focused on the team and they'll push to give Contador the yellow. Yet if Armstrong is strong in the mountains, stronger than he was in Italy, things could get messy. He said he was coming out of retirement to win the Tour and I can’t imagine him taking a back seat to Contador if he thinks he has a chance of winning it all. What happens if we get through a couple mountain stages and Armstrong and Contador are 1 and 2?

What are Armstrong’s chances? Well, it's going to come down to whether at almost 38 years old he can still do it. When he won his seventh Tour, he was the oldest man to win the Tour de France since 1948. That was four years ago. In the mountain stages in Italy he was often one of the top ten or fifteen climbers, but he was consistently not one of the top three. He will have to be stronger. If anyone can win at his age, it's Armstrong, but aside from maybe his first win coming back from cancer, it will easily be the most miraculous of his Tour wins.

As for today's stage winner, Cavendish may well be the best sprinter in the world.